The Greatest Predictor of Success Is Simpler Than You Think

In his book Greatness, David L. Cook, PhD distills decades of elite performance coaching into four foundational drivers of success: focus, passion, mental toughness, and selfless exceptionalism. These ideas are not novel, and I suspect that’s precisely the point. Dr. Cook isn’t theorizing from the sidelines. He served as the mental training coach for the San Antonio Spurs from 1996 to 2024, directed the Applied Sport and Performance Psychology program at the University of Kansas for 12 years, was a past president of the National Sport Psychology Academy, and coached elite performers across the PGA, NBA (including MVPs David Robinson and Tim Duncan), NFL, MLB, and the Olympic level.

After decades immersed in the science behind greatness, Cook concluded that the true differentiators are almost disarmingly simple. Here’s what he found matters most:

• Where do you want to go? (Focus): Greatness begins with a decision. What is the ultimate destination? What does success actually mean to you? Clearly, specifically, and vividly?

• How badly do you want to get there? (Passion): What is your why? What are the benefits of arrival? Your “why” determines whether you endure difficulty or quit when it becomes hard.

• Do you have the mental skills to endure adversity along the way? (Mental Toughness): No one is born with this. It is trained. Great performers don’t tolerate adversity because they enjoy suffering; they endure it because their reason is greater than the misery that accompanies the process.

• Do your words and actions reflect a noble heart that elevates others? (Selfless Exceptionalism) As Dr. Cook writes, elite performers “live above the negative stereotypes associated with limelight-seeking champions: greed, anger, selfishness, intimidation, and rule-bending.” The way you treat others either amplifies your influence—or renders it irrelevant.

  
  

Cook summarizes his entire book this way: “We don’t fail because we don’t try. We fail because we are missing the answers to these questions.” Its applicable on the field as it is in the boardroom.

Simple? Yes.

Easy? Never.

Transformational? Absolutely.

Focus

Memento mori or “remember you must die” originated in ancient Rome and was later embraced by Stoic philosophers like Seneca and Marcus Aurelius. After victorious battles, a slave was stationed behind the triumphant general and whisper these words into his ear. The message wasn’t morbid. It was curative. An antidote to drift, ego, and distraction.

In 1916, Jack London gave the modern world its version of this idea in his now-famous credo:

“I would rather be ashes than dust!

I would rather that my spark should burn out in a brilliant blaze

than it should be stifled by dry rot.

I would rather be a superb meteor, every atom of me in magnificent glow,

than a sleepy and permanent planet.

The proper function of man is to live, not to exist.

I shall not waste my days in trying to prolong them.

I shall use my time.”

Months later, on November 22, 1916, Jack London died at just 40 years old. By then, he had written over 50 books in 17 years and become the highest-paid writer in the world. He had lived as a 15-year-old oyster pirate, a train-hopping hobo, a war correspondent, and a farmer. His work ethic was uncompromising. London didn’t wait for inspiration, he said he “hunted the muse with a club.” He routinely wrote 12–15 hours a day and educated himself through marathon sessions in the library.

London understood something most never grasp: focus is not about doing more things, it’s an understanding of the value of time, and living as if it matters.

The proper function of man is to live, not to exist.

Excellence Compounds

“To be everywhere is to be nowhere.”  Seneca

Napoleon conquered Europe with speed and precision that stunned the world. But in 1812, he made a fatal mistake in Russia. He overextended. Too many objectives. Too much territory. Too little preparation. Logistical vulnerability and winter. Napoleon didn’t lose because he lacked brilliance. He lost because he lost focus. His divided attention crushed his army.

Napoleon and Seneca teach the same irrefutable truth: Concentrated focus is a force multiplier. Excellence isn’t doing more, it is doing less, better; a truth relevant to the titans of industry, top performing athletes, and of course, you.  

Where to begin focus?

1. What are the one or two critical things you must not just work on daily, but master that would have the most profound effect on your outcomes?

2. What do you do better than most people with similar training or experience?

3. Where do you win with less effort than others require?

4. What feels “simple” to you, but difficult for most?

   
   

When focus is protected, progress compounds daily.

From One Thing, Know Ten Thousand Things

Miyamoto Musashi (1584–1645) is widely regarded as the greatest samurai to ever live. From his first duel at age 13 to his final years, he fought over sixty duels and never lost. Feared as a swordsman and revered as a thinker, Musashi wasn’t just a warrior; he was a master of discipline and strategy. In The Book of Five Rings, he writes, “If you master the principles of sword-fencing, when you freely beat one man, you beat any man in the world. The spirit of defeating a man is the same for ten million men…The principle of strategy is having one thing, to know ten thousand things…From one thing, know ten thousand things.” In short, master the fundamentals and then repeat relentlessly.

Bruce Lee famously said, “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.” Interestingly, a similar theme shows up in the practices of Michael Jordan, Serena Williams, Simone Biles, John Wooden, Warren Buffett, Marie Curie, Jeff Bezos, Ray Dalio, Maya Angelou, DaVinci, Bach, and Isaac Newton.

Mastery isn’t built by variety, it is built by repeating the mundane again and again and again.

Monotasking

“A man who has not a single absorbing passion has no ruling principle.” Benjamin Disraeli

As emphasized earlier this week, David L. Cook, PhD identifies “focus” as one of four primary foundations of elite performance. He frames it up simply, “Where do you want to go? (Focus)

Johann Hari in his aptly titled book, “Stolen Focus” offers a complementary and instructive angle. He states, “Mihaly [Csikszentmihalyi]’s studies identified many aspects of flow, but it seemed to me that if you want to get there, what you need to know boils down to three core components. The first thing you need to do is to choose a clearly defined goal. I want to paint this canvas; I want to run up this hill; I want to teach my child how to swim. You have to resolve to pursue it, and to set aside other goals while you do. Flow can only come when you are monotasking, when you choose to set aside everything else and do one thing. Mihaly found that distraction and multitasking kill flow, and nobody will reach flow if they are trying to do two or more things at the same time. Flow requires all of your brainpower, deployed toward one mission.”

Not convinced, the neuroscience now reveals the human brain cannot actively focus on more than one complex task at a time and working memory reliably holds only 2-3 or 3-4 items at a time (depending on your research). There’s a reason those great at multitasking, struggle with finishing.

We See What We Focus On

“It is not things that disturb us, but our judgments about things that do.” - Epictetus

In 1976, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne founded one of the greatest companies in American business history. Mr. Wayne, the cautious, practical adult in the room, owned 10% of Apple. 12 days following launch, Wayne sold his ownership back to Jobs and Wozniak for $2300.00; the pressure wasn’t worth it. That 10% would be worth $300 billion today.  

Most people don’t fail because they make the wrong decision, they fail because they leave too early. We justify our early departures out of discomfort, impatience, pain, or fear. Good or bad, our focus dictates all that we will “see,” and that focus matters far more than we care to admit.

Will Smith, the American actor, producer, rapper, and songwriter provides a solid perspective. When asked for the reasons for his success, he states:

“The only thing that I see that is distinctly different about me is I'm not afraid to die on a treadmill. I will not be out-worked, period. You might have more talent than me; you might be smarter than me, you might be sexier than me, you might be all of those things you got it on me in nine categories. But if we get on the treadmill together, there's two things: You're getting off first, or I'm going to die. It's really that simple.”

Better Than Yesterday

“You’re either getting better or you’re getting worse, you never stay the same.” – Pat Riley

Pat Riley, often called “The Godfather” is one of the most accomplished figures in NBA history, both as a coach and an executive. He won five NBA championships as a head coach, nine championships as a player, and two more as an NBA executive. To date, he remains the only North American sports figure to win championships in all three roles.

While Riley’s accomplishment is rare, his philosophy is hardly unique. 

Winston Churchill put it this way: “To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often.” Lauren Bacall warned, “Standing still is the fastest way of moving backwards.” NFL Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells was even blunter: “What you did last season doesn’t matter. What you did last week barely matters. What you do now is everything.” Nick Saban echoed the same truth: “Success yesterday doesn’t mean success today.” And Brett Favre distilled it down simply: “You’re only as good as your last game.”

Different arenas. Same operating principle.

BETTER TODAY THAN I WAS YESTERDAY.

Dr. David L. Cook, adds precision and structure to this philosophy. He calls it self-referenced goal setting: “A self-referenced goal is a goal measured against self. In the goal-setting process, the truest measure of success is you against you yesterday.”

Each day resets the scoreboard. And success in any context of life, is decided, daily.

How Badly Do You Want It?

“What moves those of genius, what inspires their work is not new ideas, but their obsession with the idea that what has already been said is still not enough.”  Eugene Delacroix

That big goal you have. How badly do you really want it? And just as importantly, why do you want it? In performance, the answer to those two questions dictates almost everything. Strong interest can grow into love. Love, when pressed, becomes passion. Passion if fueled, hardens into an obsession. And obsession, turns potential into inevitability. We don’t stumble into greatness with a casual curiosity. You cannot become an Olympian with a hobbyist’s affection for a sport. You cannot invent anything meaningful unless you’re consumed by what might be. You don’t reach the C-suite without sacrificing comfort, balance, or seasons of your life. We should never confuse comfort with destiny.

There is nothing redeeming about becoming an Olympian or a CEO if your greatest desire and passion is enormous amounts of time with your friends or starting a business that makes lives better for the underprivileged. Either way, unless you are willing to “go all in” on a chosen endeavor (irrespective of the discipline or space), you might eventually discover that giftedness only rewards those who commit without reservation.

Different callings demand different costs, but every calling demands more than comfort likes to give. “I don’t have time” isn’t really a reason, we all have the same number. It’s just an “accepted” confession that “I don’t want it badly enough.” And that’s okay, most don’t.

Passion Soldiers & Grit

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not… Genius will not… Education will not… Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.”- Calvin Coolidge

In the early 2000s, the United States Military Academy at West Point faced a significant problem. Every year, some of the most impressive young men and women in the country are accepted into West Point and then after meticulous analysis and screening (i.e., SAT scores, varsity athletes, proven leaders, physically fit, medically screened, and highly motivated) they wash out. Traditional predictors were no longer working.  

Around this same time, Dr. Angela Duckworth’s was working on her groundbreaking research into “Grit,” the idea that sustained passion and perseverance toward long-term goals might be a stronger predictor of success than talent alone. Although it makes all the sense in the world, West Point missed this. Cadets with impeccable academic scores, quit. Cadets with the strongest physical abilities, quit. And cadets ranked high in leadership potential, also quit. Duckworth’s notion that “effort counts twice”: once in building skill, and again in applying it was tested and here’s what she found: Cadets scoring highest in perseverance and long-term consistency of interest were significantly more likely to finish than those who were not. Not IQ, physical superiority, motivated, or leadership ability, but grit, undergirded by hunger.

The world is FULL of gifted people…who never finish. What West Point and Dr. Duckworth teach us is that what separates the few is not talent or brilliance, but burning, sustained, almost irrational desire. Talent carries the day until pressure arrives, then after that, all that remains is, hunger.

Longing

“The tragedy of life is not death, but what we let die inside of us while we live.” - Norman Cousins

In Geoff Colvin’s, Talent is Overrated: What Really Separates World-Class Performers from Everybody Else, he writes, “In a famous study of chess players, Nobel Prize winner Herbert Simon and William Chase proposed ‘the ten year rule,’ based on their observation that no one seemed to reach the top ranks of chess players without a decade or so of intensive study, and some required much more time. Even Bobby Fischer was not an exception; when he became a grand master at age sixteen, he had been studying chess intensively for nine years. Subsequent research in a wide range of fields has substantiated the ten-year rule everywhere the researchers have looked. In math, science, musical composition, swimming, X-ray diagnosis, tennis, literature, no one, not even the most “talented” performers, became great without at least ten years of very hard preparation. If talent means that success is easy or rapid, as most people seem to believe, then something is obviously wrong with a talent-based explanation of high achievement.”

When the talent-based explanation can no longer be used as an excuse for non-performance, what remains is desire and hunger. The differentiator, how much of it do you have?

Quick test:

1. Do you deeply care about the outcome? If yes, keep chasing it.

2. Are you pursuing this because it’s yours or because it’s impressive? If it is approval or acceptance driven, hang it up. The approval and accolades of others will never be sufficient to outlast the grind.

3. Will this shape you into who or what you want to become? If not, why do it?

4. Is this desire coming from conviction or comparison? If comparison, it won’t get you through the sacrifice required.

5. When you picture your older self, looking back, would you regret not pursuing this? If so, keep going.

6. Can you identify 5 compelling reasons why achieving the goal is a must? If yes, keep going (And write them down and look at them consistently).  

7. Are you willing to sacrifice comfort for this, consistently? If yes, it should be chased.

8. If success took 5-10 years, would you still pursue it? If not, keep searching.

9. When you imagine giving up the dream, do you feel relief? Or regret? If it is regret, that signals a passion potent enough to push you over the finish line. If relief, might be time to change course.

   
   

The years will pass either way. What they produce is decided by the pain you embrace…the pain of discipline or the pain of regret. Regret is easy when you didn’t care in the first place, it is excruciating when you do.

8,760 Hours a Year

“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.” - Chinese Proverb

The single most important question connected to any lifelong aspiration is this: “What are you passionate enough about to sacrifice a great deal of time to achieve?” We are given 8,760 hours each year. By age 40, we will have lived 350,400 hours. If that same person lives to age 90, they have approximately 438,000 hours remaining (87,600 more hours than the first 40 years combined).

Let that sink in

Now consider research by psychologist Anders Ericsson, later popularized by Malcolm Gladwell in Outliers. His work on deliberate practice suggests elite mastery requires 10,000 hours. Other research asserts that 8,000–12,000 hours of focused, structured effort are required. For our example, we will use the higher threshold: 12,000 hours.

By the age of 40, you theoretically had enough time to reach world-class or elite levels of mastery more than 25 times, accounting for very little progress in your earliest, formative years. Now consider what remains in our little example: If you live 50 more years, you have 438,000 hours left.

Let’s put this in practical terms:

• Sleep 8 hours per night = 2,920 hours/year

• That leaves 5,840 waking hours

• Work 9 hours/day, 5 days/week (≈ 240 workdays/year) → 2,160 hours

• That leaves approximately 3,680 discretionary hours per year that are either wasted or maximized.

At that rate, you could reach 12,000 hours of deliberate practice in just over three years (12,000 ÷ 3,680 ≈ 3.26 years). 3,680 hours a year to chase “that thing” down.

“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.”

Misery

“The most beautiful people we have known are those who have known defeat, known suffering, known struggle, known loss, and have found their way out of those depths.” - Elisabeth Kubler-Ross

Earl Nightingale once described a visit to the Great Barrier Reef with his son. Stretching nearly 1,800 miles from New Guinea to Australia, the reef presented a striking contrast. On the inside of the reef, where the lagoon waters were calm and undisturbed, the coral appeared pale and lifeless. But on the outside where the tide surged and waves crashed relentlessly, the coral was brilliant, vibrant, and expanding with stunning color and strength. When Nightingale asked why, the answer was simple: The coral protected from challenge dies quickly. The coral battered daily by the open sea thrives because it is tested. And so it is with every living organism on earth.

There is a place within each of us we instinctively avoid, discomfort. It operates automatically, embedded deep in our wiring. We build emotional fortresses to protect ourselves from it. We overprotect our children from it. We sidestep risk, abandon dreams, and dull resilience in ourselves and in our children all in an effort to escape struggle. It may be the only experience that is common to every human being on earth.   

Avoiding hardship is natural. But the paradox is: comfort weakens, suffering strengthens. The life or aspiration we long for is almost always waiting on the other side of what we are wired to avoid. It is not personal. It is the journey.

Helen Keller understood this better than most. At just 19 months old, she lost both her sight and her hearing. Yet she became the first deafblind person to earn a college degree, authored fourteen books, traveled to thirty-five countries advocating for the disabled, and received the Presidential Medal of Freedom. She wrote: “Character cannot be developed in ease and quiet. Only through experience of trial and suffering can the soul be strengthened, ambition inspired, and success achieved.”

One of the great paradoxes in life… The very thing we fear will break us, is often the thing that forms us.

The Outcomes of Discipline

“The first and best victory is to conquer self.” – Plato

Michael Phelps was diagnosed with ADHD at 12 and told by teachers he would struggle. He couldn’t sit still, he couldn’t concentrate. He was falling behind in the classroom and failing as a student. Outside the classroom and in the pool, everything changed for him. His mother began waking him at 4:30am to train. The schedule was unrelenting. Six days a week, then seven. Christmases, birthdays, every single day for years without fail. By the time he retired from the sport, he was the most decorated Olympian in history.  Like every Olympian before him, discipline granted him entry into the unforgiving company of the elite.

History has always agreed on this point…

“True freedom is impossible without a mind made free by discipline.”  Mortimer J. Adler

“Discipline is choosing between what you want now and what you want most.” Abraham Lincoln

“Self-discipline is that which, next to virtue, truly and essentially raises one man above another.” Joseph Addison

“You will never have a greater or lesser dominion than that over yourself…the height of a man’s success is gauged by his self-mastery; the depth of his failure by his self-abandonment…And this law is the expression of eternal justice. He who cannot establish dominion over himself will have no dominion over others.” Leonardo da Vinci

“The first victory great leaders win is the battle over themselves. Leaders can never take others farther than they have gone personally.” Dr. John Maxwell

“Winners embrace hard work.  They love the discipline of it, the trade-off they’re making to win. Losers, on the other hand, see it as a punishment.  And that’s the difference.” Lou Holtz

“In reading the lives of great men, I found that the first victory they won was over themselves…self-discipline with all of them came first.” Harry S. Truman

Notice a theme? Couple disciplined execution to an almost reckless passion for something, and you’ll see talent matter less by the day.